中国贸易顺差研究的脉络梳理与未来展望

Review and Prospect on China’s Trade Surplus

在已有文献基础上,本文首先分析确认了影响中国贸易顺差的三个基本因素,即人民币实际汇率、贸易政策以及国民收入总量,但鉴于2004-2008年期间贸易顺差在国内生产总值中所占比重的实际走势,仍然无法通过这三方面的变化情况予以说明,因而进一步将中国贸易顺差的成因归结为储蓄投资失衡这一国民收入的结构性变化。通过对相关文献及政府有关政策的综合分析发现,无论是导致中国居民储蓄率上升的国民收入分配结构偏向,还是引起我国储蓄向投资的转化率大幅下滑的大规模数量型货币政策,可能都与中国式分权体制存在着重要关联。未来还应针对与此相关的若干问题展开进一步的探索。

Based on the former researches,firstly,the paper confirms there are three basic factors determining China’s trade surplus.Secondly,for the practical situation of real effective exchange rate of RMB,trade policy and gross national income’s failure to explain the evolution of share of China’s trade surplus in GDP,the paper focuses on saving-investment imbalance,which relates with national income structure.Thirdly,integrating relative literatures on economic policy,the paper finds that not only the deflection of national income distribution which leads to high saving rate but also the huge quantity type of monetary policy which decreases the ratio of saving being turned to investment,may have high correlativity with Chinese-style decentralization system.Some topics concerning with this problem should be explored further in the future.