货币政策的信贷渠道:基于“金融加速器模型”的中国经济周期分析

Monetary Policy and Credit Channel:Analysis on China's Business Cycle Based on Financial Accelerator Model

本文在一个带有"金融加速器"的DSGE模型中讨论了我国宏观经济波动背后的信贷因素,并检验了"金融加速器模型"对我国宏观经济波动的解释能力。在此基础上,本文进而分析了货币政策通过信贷因素对我国宏观经济的影响。本文分析的结果表明,受信贷市场中不对称信息的影响,宏观经济变量都表现出较大的波动性,模型模拟出的产出、实际利率和投资等主要变量的相对标准差都与实际经济数据相似;同时,脉冲响应分析的结论显示,相对产出等其他变量,货币政策对于价格水平和通货膨胀有着更好的控制力。从这个意义上说,本文的研究也为我国货币政策的目标明确了方向。

This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE） with financial accelerator factor to analyze the influence of financial credit on China economic fluctuation. Calibrating the model with the data of 1992-2009, this paper also discusses the effect of China＇s monetary policy. The conclusion of this paper shows that due to the credit factors, macroeconomic variables exhibit large fluctuations. The results from both simulation and impulse response function imply that the financial accelerator model here may provide a good explanation on China＇s economy. In this regards, this paper has provided suggestions on the target of monetary policies.