金融危机对新兴市场国家贸易影响的动态效应研究

The Dynamic Effect of Trade Impact Studies on Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries

在经济全球化的大背景下,金融危机严重影响部分国家甚至全球的经济运行。作为目前全球增长的最大贡献力量,以出口导向为主要特征的新兴市场国家,面临金融危机时常表现出高频性和脆弱性。文章通过引力模型的实证分析得出:危机爆发年中,货币贬值都对进口和出口产生消极影响,且对进口的影响程度大于出口;危机爆发接下来的两年期间,货币贬值促进出口增长,进口依然下降。另外,金融危机对国际贸易的冲击反应表明:总体上,危机期间,进口不断下降,而对出口的影响轨迹在1980-1995年间呈"U"型,在1996-2007年间表现为短期即刻下降,而后迅速上升,第二年后恢复并超过危机前正常水平。

In the context of economic globalization,the financial crisis has seriously affected some countries and even global economic operation.As the greatest contribution to the current strength of global growth,the export-oriented emerging market countries facing financial crisis often show high-frequency and vulnerability.The empirical analysis of the Gravity Model in this paper indicates that the currency devaluation have a negative more impact on imports than exports.During the two-year period following the crisis,the currency devaluation promote export growth and decrease import.In addition,the response impact of the financial crisis on international trade shows that during the crisis imports were falling,and the track feature of exports between 1980-1995 was in the ＂U＂type;in the 1996-2007 years,the performance of immediate short-term decline in then a rapid increase in the second year and exceeded pre-crisis recovery to normal levels.