旅游系统演变趋势模型的构建及其科学意义

Foundation and Significance of Tourism System Evolutionary Trend Model

文章试图从系统整体的角度提出旅游系统演变趋势模型,包含旅游系统演变趋势概念模型、运用该概念模型定量分析旅游变化趋势的旅游系统演变趋势数学模型。根据该模型可以深入认识旅游的"真正"变化趋势、旅游的波动变化趋势、重大事件对旅游的影响,从而增强对旅游变化过程与变化趋势的认识,提高旅游预测的准确程度,并为旅游发展评价和旅游决策提供更为科学的依据。

Based on drawing lessons from some present theories and methods,this paper puts forward Tourism System Evolutionary Trend Model（Abbr.TSEM）,which including Tourism System Evolutionary Trend Conceptual Model（Abbr.TSECM） and Tourism System Evolutionary Trend Mathematical Model（Abbr.TSEMM）.This model can help you to make a deep acknowledge of the real Trend and fluctuation trend of tourism and make accurate assessment to a major event for tourism,so as to enhance awareness of the process of tourism development,improve the accuracy of tourism forecast and provide a scientific basis for evaluating the development of tourism and tourism decision-making.