概率预期下在线报童问题的最小风险策略

The Minimal Risk Strategy of the Online Newsboy Problem Based on Probabilistic Forecast

报童问题是库存管理中一个基本模型。已有的报童模型主要利用均值-方差方法和期望效用目标方法进行风险的描述和度量。这些方法假设需求分布信息已知,而实际中需求分布信息往往难以完全刻画。本文使用概率预期作为刻画不完全需求分布信息的格式,基于在线风险补偿的思想,为需求分布信息不完全的报童问题建立了最小风险模型。使用该模型设计了最小风险策略,使报童可以根据自己设定的不同收益和未来概率预期选择最优订购量。

The newsboy problem has always been an important issue in inventory management.The exiting newsboy models describe and measure risk using Mean-Variance methodology and expected utility objective.These methods assume full knowledge of the demand probability distribution,however,in reality,it is often difficult to completely characterize the demand.This paper selects probability forecast to describe limited demand distribution,and constructs an online risk-reward model for the newsboy problem under probabilistic forecasts.Comparing with the existing studies,this model can help the newsboy choosing the minimal risk strategy with great flexibility,according to his own restrained reward and probabilistic forecast.