重庆高温热浪指数和暖夜指数变化及其情景预估

Variation and Scenario Projections of Heat Wave Duration Index and Warm Night Index in Chongqing

利用重庆地区1951—2008年逐日气温资料分析了近58年重庆高温热浪指数(HWDI)和暖夜指数(TN90)的年际、年代际变化及其与气温各要素的关系。利用用于IPCC-AR4的全球气候模式产品,在验证其对重庆地区热浪和暖夜指数的模拟能力的基础上,筛选模拟能力较好的模式进行合理组合,并考虑模式模拟气候参考时段的偏差,预估高(A2)、中(A1B)、低(B1)3种排放情景下21世纪重庆地区热浪和暖夜指数的变化。与目前气候(1980—1999年)相比,3种情景下21世纪重庆地区热浪和暖夜指数都将呈显著增加的趋势。2011—2100年,3种不同情景下热浪指数的平均增幅为7.7～12.3天,暖夜指数的平均增幅为12.2%～16.4%。分阶段来看,3种不同排放情景下,21世纪前期(2011—2040年)热浪指数的平均增幅为3.1～4.1天,暖夜指数的平均增幅为5.7%～7.3%;中期(2041—2070年)热浪指数的平均增幅为6.9～11.3天,暖夜指数的平均增幅为12.2%～17.5%;后期(2071—2100年)热浪指数的平均增幅为12.4～21.6天,暖夜指数的平均增幅为17.1%～27.8%。

Based on the daily temperature data from 1951 to 2008 in Chongqing,the temporal variation of Heat Wave Duration Index（HWDI） and warm night index（TN90） are analyzed.Through evaluating the simulation capability of the IPCC-AR4 Coupled Climate Model products,the results of HWDI and TN90 from 2001 to 2100 relative to the average of 1980 to 1999 in Chongqing,projected by the multi-model ensemble models under the A2,A1B,and B1 emission scenarios of SRES（Special Report on Emission Scenarios）are given.The results show that compared with the current climate（1980 to 1999）,under the A2,A1B,and Bl emissions scenarios,HWDI and TN90 will increase sharply in the 21st century.During the period of 2011 to 2100,HWDI will increase by 7.7 to 12.3 days and TN90 increase by 12.2%to 16.4%.From 2011 to 2040,HWDI will increase by 3.1 to 4.1 days and TN90 increase by 5.7%to 7.3%. In the medium 21st century（2041 to 2070）,HWDI will increase by 6.9 to 11.3 days and TN90 increase by 12.2%to 17.5%;in the latter 21st century（2071 to 2100）,HWDI will increase by 12.4 to 21.6 days and TN90 increase by 17.1%to 27.8%.