燃气负荷组合预测中贝叶斯权重法的应用

Gas load combination forecast method of Bayesian weight

将贝叶斯概率理论引入组合预测模型中,建立了基于GM(1,1)和偏最小二乘回归模型的燃气负荷动态权重组合预测模型。通过对某市的实例分析,结果表明,此方法有效地提高了预测精度。

In this passage,the Bayesian probability theory is introduced in combination forecast model,which is a based on the GM（1,1） and partial least-square regression model of gas load dynamic weighting combination forecast model.The analysis results show that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the predictions.