安徽省农业旱灾特征及其对粮食生产的影响

Agricultural Drought and Its Effect Food Production in Anhui Province

分别从旱灾的发生频率、时空分布、发生与发展过程及其对粮食产量的影响等方面,分析了安徽省农业旱灾的特征和变化趋势,以及粮食生产对干旱的响应规律。结果表明,安徽省的旱灾呈现明显周期性波动,轻重灾情交替出现,其波动周期大致为5～10年;严重以上旱灾的发生机遇平均约为4年一次,且旱灾在水旱灾害中所占的比例及其对粮食生产的致灾强度呈增长变化趋势;农业干旱灾害具有明显的区域差异性,安徽淮河流域旱灾的年均成灾面积和粮食减产量均占全省的70%左右。粮食减产率与旱灾成灾率二者之间呈现一定的正相关关系,即随着成灾率的增加粮食减产率呈上升趋势,其拟合关系以多项式较为理想,为减轻粮食灾害损失、进行旱灾治理的重点区域是该省的淮北平原和江淮丘陵粮食主产区。

Drought is the major constraint factor that affects food production in Anhui Province.This paper analyzes the characteristics of agricultural drought and trends,as well as food production on the response of dry in Anhui Province,from the drought frequency,spatial and temporal distribution,occurrence and development process and its impact on food production.The result shows that drought in the province show clear cyclical,alternating light and heavy disaster,the fluctuation period is approximately 5 to 10 years.The occurrence of severe drought for more than an average of about 4 years time opportunities,and drought in the proportion of flood and drought disasters and hazards on food production growth trend strength.Agricultural drought disaster has significant regional differences,drought disaster area and the average annual total grain output reduction of the Anhui Province of Huaihe River Basin are both 70% of the province.Grain yield reduction rate and drought disaster rate show some positive correlation,with the drought disaster rate increased and the grain yield reduction rate rose.And the polynomial has a high degree fitting for this fitting relation.Proposed to reduce food losses,to the key areas of drought management is the major grain producing areas of Huaibei plain and Jianghuai hilly region in Anhui Province.