融资约束与中国经济波动——新凯恩斯主义框架内的动态分析

Financial Constraint and Chinese Business Cycles:A Dynamic Analysis in the New Keynesian Framework

本文在动态一般均衡框架内探讨投资融资约束冲击的动态特性，构建了一个新凯恩斯主义刚性价格模型，通过扩展传统的货币先行约束，引入投资的融资约束冲击。模型的动态结果很好地解释了数据中的发现。为了从理论上讨论货币政策规则应对该冲击的能力及其机理，我们分别模拟了不同参数的泰勒规则和货币供给规则，结果显示：盯住通货膨胀和产出缺口的货币政策能够较好地对冲投资融资约束冲击的负面影响。该理论结果为金融危机时期的中国货币政策提供了有益的建议。

The self raised fund exhibits in Fixed Asset Investment （FAD exhibits cyclical pattern. During the period of financial crisis increasing binding constraint of external financing pushes the ratio of self raised fund to the total higher and directs the economy further in- to recession. We examine this shock to the investment financial constraint from the data, and found that it is equivalent to a negative demand shock that results in the decrease of output and inflation. Theoretically, we build a DSGE model with New Keynesian sticky price to ex- plore the dynamic properties of this shock by using the standard Cash-In-Advance （CIA） constraint to characterize this exogenous shock. Scenario simulations suggest that active mone- tary policy rules effectively the economy.