人口红利与房地产收益率的无关性

Irrelevance of Demographic Dividends and Real-Estate Equilibrium Returns

本文通过建立一个跨期叠代（Overlapping Generation，OLG）模型，研究房地产均衡收益率和人口相关变量的关系，从理论上证明了在完全理性的市场中，房地产投资收益率与人口增长率无关，而与城市化水平负相关。采用中国房产价格以及人口数据，实证结果表明房地产收益率与人口变量关系不强，与城市化水平正相关，支持了上述结论。

In an overlapping generation model, this paper studies the relationship between demographic variables and real-estate equilibrium returns, and proves that the real-estate return is negatively related to the level of urbanization but has no relationship with demographic transition. The empirical results support the conclusion based on real-estate price data and demographic data in China.