大型综合性体育赛事人力资源需求的预测研究——以广州第十六届亚洲运动会为例

The Prediction Study on Human Resources Requirement for the Large-scale Comprehensive Sports Event——As an example of The Sixteenth Asian Games in Guangzhou

本研究以2010年11月在广州举办第十六届亚洲运动会为背景,通过运用人员比率预测法和二次曲线模型:yt=b0+b1t+b2t2,建立人力资源需求预测模型,对举办本次赛事所需的人力资源进行定量预测研究,为组委会预测和布局人力资源提供参考数据。研究结果显示:取置信区间α=0.10计算,2010年广州第十六届亚洲运动会人力资源的总需求量为34184人,变化范围为30864人-37504人。

Based on the Sixteenth Asian Games held in Guangzhou（Nov.12,2010）,it is carried out that the quantitative prediction study on human resources requirement（HRR） for the Games by means of applying the predicting methods of the personnel ratio and the quadratic curve model yt=b0＋b1t＋b2t^2 into establishing the predicting models of the manpower resources requirement in order to provide the reference data of the human resources prediction and distribution for the Organization Committee.The research results show that the total HRR for the Sixteenth Asian Games in 2010 is 30864-37504 people based on the confidence interval α=0.10.