人民币汇率变动与我国贸易顺差构成——基于不同贸易主体的实证研究

Change of RMB's Exchange Rate and China's Trade Surplus Structure:An Empirical Research Based on Different Kinds of Trade Enterprises

汇率是开放经济环境下的核心工具变量,汇率波动会直接影响到进出口商的贸易利润。由于不同贸易主体的经营管理水平、经济实力大都不同,其贸易进出口对同等程度汇率变动的响应应该是不同的。文章研究了汇率变动对外资企业、国有企业、集体企业以及其他类型企业贸易差额发展变化的影响。研究发现,各类型企业的外贸顺差额变化与汇率及世界需求变动之间都存在长期稳定关系。外商投资企业的外贸顺差受汇率及世界经济发展状况的影响程度比较高,国有企业与集体企业外贸顺差受汇率及世界经济状况的影响模式是一致的,但是国有企业外贸差额受世界需求变动的影响程度要高于汇率变动的影响程度。

The exchange rate is a key variable in the open economy, it has direct influence on the trade profit of importers and exporters. The effects of the exchange rate change on different kinds of trade enterprises are different due to the differences of their operational experience and economic strength. This paper studies the effects of the change of RMB＇s exchange rate on the trade balance of foreign investment enterprises, state-owned enterprises, collectively-owned enterprises and other kind of enterprises. The results indicate that long term relationships maintain stable among all kinds of enterprises＇ trade surplus, exchange rate and world＇s demand. And the change of exchange rate and world＇s demand have large influence on the trade surplus of foreign investment enterprises, the affeetive mode of changes of exchange rate and world＇s demand on trade surplus of state-owned enterprises and collectively-owned enterprises is alike, but trade surplus of state-owned enterprise is more affected by world＇s demand than collectivelyowned enterprises.