东北平原农作物生产力及固碳能力模拟

Simulating of Production and Carbon Sequestration of Crops under Climate Change Scenarios in the Northeast China

拟探明未来气候变化对东北平原作物生产以及农业植被对日益升高的大气CO2固定能力的影响,为政府决策提供依据。该研究采用CERES系列模型与3种大气环流模型耦合的方法,评价了CO2倍增时气候变化对东北地区4种主要作物(大豆、玉米、小麦和水稻)生产力、水分状况以及固碳能力的影响。结果显示:未来(2040年)东北地区玉米和水稻生育期分别缩短27 d和29 d,大豆和春小麦生育期只缩短13 d和9 d;雨育大豆模拟生物量较当前值平均增幅高达50%,灌溉水稻和雨育玉米生物量较当前值增幅分别为10%和6%左右,而雨育春小麦的情况较复杂,其生物量易受到气候变化的干扰;未来气候变化可使研究区域作物固碳能力从3.82 t/hm2提升到4.39 t/hm2。表明:气候变暖使作物生育期缩短;CO2倍增,大豆生产力提高显著,水稻和玉米生产力略有增加,春小麦由于对水分敏感而生产力不稳;当前东北平原农业植被的固碳能力偏弱,未来气候变化有助于农业生产力的提高及农业碳汇功能的强化。

In order to explore the effects of climate change on the crop production and agricultural vegetation on the carbon sequestration ability in the Northeast China in the future,the CERES models ran under both baseline weather and climate change scenarios,which were based on 3 global climate models（GCMs） of GISS,GFDL and UKMO,were used to evaluate the effects of climate change on productivities,moisture status and carbon sequestration of soybean,maize,spring wheat and rice in the Northeast China.In 2040,the growth duration of maize and rice would be shortened by 27 d and 29 d,respectively,while 13 d and 9 d were shortened by for soybean and spring wheat,respectively.The simulated soybean biomass under rainfed scenario was averagely 50% higher than that under the baseline weather,while 10% and 6% increments were simulated for irrigated rice and rainfed maize,respectively.The simulated biomass of rainfed spring wheat would be vulnerable to the climate change.The carbon sequestration ability of crops in the Northeast China would be enhanced from 3.82 t/hm2 to 4.39 t/hm2 by the climate change.The results indicated that the climate in the Northeast China would display a warm-dry tendency,and the warming climate would shorten the growth period of crops.The soybean productivities would increase significantly in scenarios of doubled CO2,and rice and maize productivities would increase slightly,while spring wheat productivities would be unstable due to its sensibility to the moisture.Currently,compared with other regions,the crop carbon sequestration ability in the Northeast China was relative weak,while the climate change in the future would be beneficial for the improvement of crop productivities and the strengthening of agricultural carbon pool.