基于空间自相关的江苏省区域经济差异时空格局分析

Spatial-temporal Pattern of Regional Economic Disparities in Jiangsu Province Based on Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis

利用江苏省2002~2007年县域人均GDP数据,基于空间自相关分析理论,使用ESDA软件GeoDA计算全局Moran’s I、局部空间关联指标,绘制Moran’s I散点图,对江苏省县域经济总体与局部差异的时空格局进行实证分析。研究表明,研究时段内江苏省经济发展总体呈现强的空间自相关,这种集聚的趋势略有减弱。同时区域经济在空间分布上存在明显的不均衡性,体现了苏南发达、苏北落后的基本格局。这种两极分化的现象在加剧,且聚集范围有向外扩张的趋势。

The paper used the ESDA tool-GeoDA to calculate Globle Moran＇s Index,Local Indicators of Spatial Association and brush the Moran scatter plot from the per capita GDP data during 2002~2007 of Jiangsu province and analyse the globle and local re-gional economic disparities.The result showed that the overall economic development of Jiangsu province had a strong spatial auto-correlation and dropped a little during 2002~2007.The local disparities analysis demonstrated the serious unbalanced spatial pattern of Jiangsu that the developed counties gathered in the south and the undeveloped in the north.The polarization phenomenon was intensi-fying and the gathering extent trended to an outward expansion.