血吸虫病重疫区以机代牛意向调查多重对应分析

Multiple correspondence analysis of intention of replacement of draught cattle with farming machine in heavily endemic areas of schistosomiasis

目的了解湖北省血吸虫病重流行区养牛户对以机代牛的意向以及影响其意向的有关因素,为政府决策和促进以机代牛提出科学的应对策略与措施。方法选择湖北省22个血吸虫病重流行县(市、区)。每个县(市、区)按血吸虫病流行类型、种植结构等选择9个村400户养牛户的户主为调查对象,采用问卷调查表进行调查,并采用χ2检验和多重对应分析等对调查数据进行分析。结果共调查8239户养牛户,愿意淘汰牛的有4656户,占56.51%;影响养牛户意愿的主要因素包括所在村疫区类型、户主年龄、耕地分布结构、售牛及配种收入、家庭主要收入来源和年人均纯收入、家庭内是否有农耕机械、现有农机服务情况、养牛的主要原因等,其中户主年龄、耕地分布结构、人均收入、村疫区类型等关系最为密切。结论以机代牛是现阶段控制血吸虫病流行的最有效手段之一。目前多数养牛户持支持态度,但其广泛开展受社会经济发展水平、地势地貌、养牛户主年龄、农机服务水平、农业种植结构、农村基础设施等诸多因素的影响,因此必须科学布置,谨慎实施。

Objective To understand the intention of replacement of draught cattle with farming machine,as well as the relevant factors affecting the intention in schistosomiasis endemic areas of Hubei Province,so as to raise scientific coping strategies and measures for decision-making.Methods Twenty-two counties（cities,districts）with schistosomiasis heavily endemic areas were sampled.A total of 400 families were selected for the investigation from 9 villages of each county,and the villages were drawn out according to the schistosomiasis prevalence and the type of planting structure.The survey was conducted by every householder whose family owned draught cattle.The questionnaire investigation was employed,and the results were analyzed with chi-square test and multiple correspondence analysis.Results A total of 8 239 farmers participated in this investigation,and 4 656（56.51%）of them had the intention to replace draught cattle with farming machine.The factors that significantly influenced the intention were the endemic type,the age of householder,field distribution structure,selling and breeding income,the main source of family＇s income,per capita net income of the family,with or without farming machinery in the family,with or without convenient agricultural machinery services in the village and the main reasons of breeding draught cattle,etc.The multiple correspondence analysis indicated that,the age of householder,field distribution structure,per capita net income of the family,and the schistosomiasis endemic type were most closed with the intention.Conclusions The replacement of draught cattle with farming machine is the most effective measure for schistosomiasis control in endemic areas at present,and the majority of farmers support it.However,some farmers still hesitate,and so the education of schistosomiasis control should be strengthened.