基于多元统计的可持续发展动态评价模型研究与应用

Study on Multivariate Statistical Model for Dynamic Evaluation of the Sustainable Development and Its Application

给出了一种基于多元统计的可持续发展动态评价模型方法,该模型方法以全局主成分分析(GPCA)、聚类分析等方法为主,将之与层次分析法(AHP)进行有效集成。再以中国各地区可持续发展环境子系统为例,根据环境污染、环境保护与治理、生态环境质量与保护、可持续发展综合环境支持能力4个方面对中国各地区1999-2005年可持续发展环境支持能力状态进行了定量评价和动态分析。指数化的评价结果表明,中国各地区以上4个方面的可持续发展环境支持能力逐年增强,可持续发展综合环境支持能力综合指数均值从1999年的0.021上升到2005年的0.446,2001年以后有加速提高的迹象。

This paper provided a dynamic evaluation model for the sustainable development based on multivariate statistical analysis. And this model includes three analysis methods, i.e. generalization principal component analysis （GPCA）, cluster analysis, analytical hierarchy process （AHP）. We applied this model on dynamic analysis and quantitative evaluation of the sustainable environmental development and their sustaining capability in every districts in China from the year of 1999-2005. And the system of sustainable environmental development includes four factors, i.e. environmental pollution, environmental protection and governance, ecological enviromnent quality and protection, general environmental sustain- ing level for sustainable development. The results suggested： （1） the sustaining level of every region for the four aspects strengthened gradually in recent years, （2） the mean of comprehensive index increased fiom 0.021 in 1999 to 0.446 in 2005, and （3） there is a trend of increased speed since 2001.