产业转移、人力资本积累与中部经济增长

Industry Transfer,Human Capital and Economic Growth in Central China

本文通过理论分析得出产业转移、人力资本和中部经济增长的假定假设,利用安徽省1990-2006年的时序数据和基于向量自回归的多元协整方法,对每个假设进行了实证研究。实证分析结果表明:一个地区的人力资本水平对地区的经济增长具有促进作用,而且不同程度的人力资本的影响是不同的;在存在技术进步的情况下,产业转移对转入地经济增长率的贡献取决与人力资本的积累;但是与理论分析不同的是,初中文化程度的人力资本对经济增长的贡献要大于高中和大学程度人力资本的贡献。

Based on theoretical analysis, we proposed five hypotheses about the relations between indus- try transfer, human capital and economic growth in Central China. Using the time-series data from 1990 to 2006 in Anhui Province, we explored each hypothesis with VAR. The result shows that, human capital does promote economic growth in the region, but to different degrees. Moreover, under the circumstances of technical progress, the effects of industry transfer on the economic growth of the transferred region depend on the accumulation of human capital. However, different from the theoretical analysis, human capital of junior education contribute to economic growth much more than those of high school and college education.