基于综合分析法的重庆市生活垃圾产量预测研究

Prediction of Municipal Solid Waste Production in Chongqing City Based on Comprehensive Analysis

通过分析重庆市1997年—2006年的生活垃圾产量以及影响垃圾产量的主要相关因素,分别采用多元线性回归分析法和灰色系统模型分析法建立了垃圾产量预测模型,并对重庆市的生活垃圾产量进行了预测。在分析两种模型的预测结果和重庆市实际情况的基础上,提出了用综合分析法处理两种模型的预测结果。结果表明:2015年重庆市的生活垃圾产量将达到543.4×104 t,到2020年则将达到809.6×104 t。

By analyzing municipal solid waste （MSW） production from 1997 to 2006 in Chongqing as well as the main impact factors of MSW production, predication models of MSW production were set up respectively using multiple linear regression analysis and gray model analysis, and used to predict the MSW production in Chongqing. Based on analyzing the results of the two models and the actual situation in Chongqing, a comprehensive analysis of both the model results is proposed, and the results are as fol- lows ： MSW production in Chongqing will reach 543.4 ×10^4 t by 2015 and 809.6 ×10^4 t by 2020.