基于Meta分析的自然资源效益转移方法的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Meta-Regression Benefit Transfer of Natural Resources

国外对资源价值评估方法的研究正向系统化方向发展,但由于受到时间、成本等约束条件的影响,不可能对资源价值逐一进行现场调查和评价,因此效益转移方法(Benefit Transfer Method)应运而生,成为目前国外自然资源价值评价领域关注的热点。通过建立效益转移数据库,应用目前国外最流行的基于Meta分析的函数效益转移方法,对我国森林公园、风景名胜区、湿地、湖泊等在内的自然资源的价值进行评价。通过Meta函数效益转移的样本外有效性检验,平均效益转移误差为26.64%,转移值与"真实值"之间在统计上没有显著的差异。统计检验的结果表明,效益转移方法是一种有效的资源价值评价方法,在一定程度上可以作为我国自然资源开发与项目决策的有效参考,是对我国资源环境价值评价方法的有效补充和扩展。

It is generally difficult to reflect natural resources and environment economic value by market price systems. Accurate understanding and reasonably valuating resources value can provide a basis for effective protection and development of resources and the environment. Developed countries have built relevant theories and methods on natural resources valuation. The travel cost method （TCM） and contingent valuation method （CVM） as well as a combination of the TCM and CVM are the primary approaches to estimate natural resources value, which have been widely used in European countries and the United States. But time and budget constraints often do not allow a new study, therefore calling for an alternative approach for non-market valuation known as the benefit transfer. There appear a few published studies on the transfer benefits of the environment value in China. This paper introduces the benefit transfer method. First, we reviewed definitions and applications of the benefit transfer and meta-analysis techniques, as well as procedures in performing a meta-analysis. An empirical study of the meta-regression benefit transfer was subsequently performed to evaluate China’s natural resources value, including national forest parks, nature reserves, lakes and wetlands, and ecosystem value. In this study, 114 original values and 33 variables were chosen on the basis of literature review to estimate the meta-analysis benefit transfer function. Validity test shows the an average error of the meta-regression benefit transfer of 26.64%, and the paired T-test shows that the transferred values and original values not only have no statistically significant difference but also have the same normal distribution. The validity test implies that the benefit transfer method would be a potentially powerful tool for China’s natural resources valuation and policy-making. Although the meta-regression model would not yield the best estimate of environmental economic value, conducting benefit transfer with meta-analysis tends to be better than without accounting for the value of environment and resources. The estimated value from the benefit transfer can provide meaningful information for policy-making.