相对资源承载力模型的改进及其实证分析

Model Modifications and Empirical Analysis of theRelative Carrying Capacity of Resources

本文首先分析了相对资源承载力模型的不足,对其进行了四点改进:①在原模型基础上加入水和能源承载力;②为克服原模型中权重任意取值的不足,提出了基于优势资源牵引效应和劣势资源束缚效应原则下的相对综合承载力模型;③给出了新的承载状态划分标准;④进一步给出各状态下承载状态度标准。其次本文应用改进后的模型横向实证分析了2008年全国31个省及直辖市的可持续发展情况,以及从纵向上对新疆2000年-2007年的可持续发展情况进行了实证分析。最后本文对改进后的模型进行了评价,并提出了更一般化的理论模型。

In the present work, the authors analyzed the shortages of resources relative carrying capacity models, and made four modifications on them： 1） adding the relative carrying capacity of water and energy based on the original model of the resources relative carrying capacity, 2） proposing two composition models of resources relative carrying capacity so as to overcome the shortages of uncertainties in the selection of the weight valve based on the pull effect of the dominant resources and the constraint effect of the inferior resources, 3） developing new classification criteria for the carrying status, and 4） giving the computation standards of the carrying status rate in different situations. Such modifications are critical to improving the performance of the model of the resources relative carrying capacity. The modified model would be greatly helpful for empirical analysis. Based on the modified model in conjunction with data from statistical yearbook from 2001 to 2008, the authors comprehensively analyzed sustainable development of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities of China's Mainland in 2008. Conclusions are drawn as follows. 1） In 2008 the number of the provinces and cities whose number of population was greater than the carrying capacity of the relative integrated resources was found to be 20, in which 11 provinces were in a significant overloading status, 9 provinces and cities in a relatively overloading status. 2） The number of the provinces whose number of population was less than the carrying capacity of the relative integrated resources was 11, including 6 provinces in an abundant status and 5 provinces in a very abundant status. 3） In general, the distribution of population seemed to be uneven across China, and provinces in an overloading status are distributed primarily in regions of eastern China and central China. Provinces in a significant overloading status are distributed primarily in regions of central China. In particular, we examined the sustainable development of Xinjiang across the period 2000-2007. It can be concluded that Xinjiang was in a very abundant status during the whole study period. Trends in the number of population surplus, carrying capacity of the relative integrated resources, as well as the greatest rate of the very abundant status first increased and then decreased. We end with evaluating the modified model and indicating a more general model of the resources relative carrying capacity which could be developed by principal component analysis and structural equation modeling to identify the major factors affecting the number of population.