中国能源效率影响因素研究——基于VEC模型的实证检验

On Influencing Factors Affecting China’s Energy Efficiency: An Empirical Test Based on the VEC Model

能源效率以其在优化能源-经济-环境系统中的重要作用,被学者们称为"第五类能源"。本文采用基于向量误差修正模型的广义脉冲响应函数分析方法,考察能源相对价格、产业结构、能源结构以及科技进步四个因素在时序维度上对我国能源效率影响的动态特征。研究结果显示:在整个冲击响应期内,能源相对价格的提升与科技进步对我国能源效率的改进具有促进作用,而产业结构与能源结构的变动则在不同程度上阻碍着我国能源效率的提高,且以上四个因素均具有持续性特征。其次,能源相对价格、科技进步、能源结构三个因素较为显著,而产业结构的影响相对较弱。基于上述研究结论,从完善能源价格形成机制、优化产业结构与能源结构、加大节能科技投入等方面,探讨了提高我国能源效率的实现途径。

Energy efficiency is called ＂the fifth category of energy＂ for its significant function in optimizing the energy-economic system. Using the method of the generalized impulse response function, which is based on the vector error-correction （VEC） model, this paper is aimed at examining influential factors affecting China’s energy efficiency and the dynamic interactions among them. First, by analyzing characteristics of the energy efficiency and development status of China’s energy-economic system, we proposed four indexes including relative energy price, the proportion of the secondary industry to GDP, advance in science and technology, and the proportion of coal to total energy consumption. All time series data corresponding to each indexe were obtained from China Statistics Yearbook or China Compendium of Statistics during the period 1949-2004 except the third index, for which we calculated the technological knowledge stock instead. Before running the model, the stationarity of each time series and the cointegration relationship among them were tested. All the time series data were found to be stationary after the first differencing, and the cointegration relationship were unique. Results of the generalized impulse response indicate that the rise of relative energy price has a significant promotion to the advance in energy efficiency in China, and the average response of energy efficiency to one S.D. innovations of relative energy price reaches 4.16% during the study period. Advance in science and technology also improves significantly the energy efficiency, and the average response of energy efficiency to one S.D. innovations of it was found to be 4.08%. On the contrary, alterations of other two variables impede the improvement of China’s energy efficiency. For example, the average response of energy efficiency to one S.D. innovations of the industrial structure and energy structure is -0.14% and -4.61%, respectively, during the study period. Meanwhile, from the results we can obtain information that rising energy price, advance in science and technology and the variations in energy structure show marked effects on China’ s energy efficiency. By contrast, change in the industrial structure shows a much weaker effect on China’s energy efficiency. We end with proposing four nichetargeting measures for substantially advancing China’s energy efficiency through improving energy pricing mechanism, adjusting the industrial structure, as well as optimizing the energy structure. In such processes, technical progress is expected to play an increasingly important role in improving China’s energy efficiency.