山东省近海区域风能资源动力降尺度研究及储量估计

Dynamical Downscaling and Reserve Estimation of Wind Energy Resources in Shandong Offshore Areas

利用目前国内外广泛应用的中尺度数值模式系统MM5以及CALMET气象风场模块结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,选取近年来沿海年平均风速变化的平均年-2008年作为模拟年,结合模拟年地面和高空气象观测资料,对山东省近海风能资源进行动力降尺度模拟研究,得到不同高度1km×1km的风能资源分布状况。结合山东沿海岸及海岛自动气象站同期测风记录,对比分析了10m高度数值模拟结果与实际观测结果的相对误差。利用ARCGIS分析软件得到山东省近海范围内70m高度风能资源储量。结果表明:动力降尺度方法可用于较高分辨率的风能资源数值模拟,可作为区域风能资源评价分析的有效手段。

Offshore wind energy resources of coastal areas in Shandong Province were assessed by numerical simulation with high resolution from a dynamical downscaling method in the present work, with the objective to assess the distribution and reserve of offshore wind energy resources. The widely-used mesoscale numerical model system MM5 and CALMET meteorological wind field module in combination with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and surface/high weather observation data were jointly used to assess the average offshore wind energy resources of Shandong with a high spatial resolution of 1km×1km. The simulated year was selected in terms of the average year 2008 of mean annual wind speed observed at coastal weather stations in recent years. Wind data of the same period at automatic weather stations in coastal and island were used to analyze the 10 m-height relative error between numerical simulations and observations. The 70 m-height offshore wind energy resources of Shandong were analyzed by ArcGIS software tools. Results show that the dynamical downscaling method could be used to assess high-resolution numerical simulations of offshore wind energy resources and it could therefore serve as an effective means for regional wind energy resources evaluation and analysis. The simulations of mean annual wind speed showed essentially agreement with the observations. The relative error between the observations and the simulations was generally less then 20%. The relative error of good representativeness at automatic weather stations was generally less than 10%. The coastal and offshore wind energy resources of Shandong could be better assessed by the dynamical downscaling method. The observations were limited in representing sites at automatic weather stations. The simulations were the averaged results at the grid scale. The model appears to be less than satisfactory to simulate the effects of island, peninsula, soil, and parameters associated with vegetation. The 70 m-height total offshore wind energy resources of Shandong was estimated to be roughly 225 432.4 MW, in which the total reserve of the Bohai Sea was 97 052.1MW, that of the northern Yellow Sea was 39 421.9MW, and that of the southeastern Yellow Sea was 88 649.4MW. The density of wind energy resources was highest in the northern Yellow Sea, suggesting an average wind power density of 455.9W/m2 and an average wind speed of 7.4m/s, followed by the Bohai Sea and the southeastern Yellow Sea. The available time of offshore wind energy resources of Shandong Province could be over 88%.