“值”在中国人的假设思维中的角色

On the Role of "Zhi" In Chinese Counterfactual Thinking

先前的研究表明,东西方在假设思维上不存在差异,或者只是存在于特殊范围内(domain-specific)。本文在中国人的"值"的概念基础上界定一个存在于东西方的假设思维上的新差异。实验1显示了在假设思维概念里,中国人的"值"是由决策理由的大小和后果的严重程度大小决定的,同时"值"被证实是中国人假设思维的中介变量。实验2比较了中、法两国被试的假设思维,结果再次证明了中国被试的假设思维是由"值"概念决定,相比而言法国被试是由"成本-收益"概念决定的。

East-west differences in counterfactual thinking were thought to be non-existent or domain-specific. We identify a domain-general difference based on the notion of Zhi. In the context of a decision that had unfortunate consequences and triggered counterfactual thinking, this Chinese concept expresses how the quality of the justifications for the decision （ex ante） balances against the severity of the unfortunate consequences （ex post）. The decision is Zhi if the quality of its justifications ＂outweighs＂ the severity of its outcome. We predict that Zhi mediates the effect of reasons and outcomes on counterfactual mutations made by Chinese participants; and that judgments of Zhi in our studies should mostly reflect expected benefits （justification）, rather than whether the benefits would be realized or not. In contrast, the cost/benefit ratio （i.e., the closest Western counterpart to Zhi） should closely reflect realized benefits. In Experiment 1, we randomly assigned 161 Chinese undergraduate students to four experimental groups, following a 2 （poor reason vs. good reason） × 2 （mild outcome vs. severe outcome） between-participant design. Participants read different versions of the Jones traffic accident vignette that originally appeared in Kahneman and Tversky （1982a）. They were then asked to complete a counterfactual mutation question beginning with ＂If only＂, and to give a rating of Zhi for the protagonist＇s decision. Results wholly supported our expectations. The decision to take an unusual route was mutated more when it was judged as less Zhi. Reasons and outcomes impacted counterfactual thinking through the mediation of Zhi, when the effect of Zhi on counterfactual thoughts was taken into account, the direct effect of reasons and outcomes dropped significantly. Experiment 2 was conducted with the help of 46 Chinese and 51 French students, and tested our cross-cultural hypothesis. Participants were presented with 4 versions of the Jones vignette, according to a 2 ×2 within-participant design, which manipulated the expected benefits （small or large） of taking an unusual route, and whether that benefit was realized or not. All participants rated the likelihood of a route mutation. Chinese participants were also asked to give a rating of Zhi, and French participants were also asked to give a rating of cost/benefit ratio in each situation. The results confirmed our hypothesis： the Zhi assessments of Chinese participants were not influenced by whether the expected benefit was realized. In contrast, the cost/benefit assessments of French participants were largely influenced by whether the expected benefit was realized. Accordingly, when participants judged the likelihood that the character in the scenario would think counterfactually of his choice of an unusual route, Chinese participants focused on the expected benefit for taking that route. French participants, however, gave a large role in their judgments to the realization of the expected benefit.