风险投资中系统风险的确定

Systematic Risk Determination In Risky Investment

系统风险不仅仅指未来现金流量的系统风险，而且还应包括由于项目投资周期长短不同所造成的期望超额收益的系统风险。因此，对风险投资中的多元化问题，高科技企业风险认识问题，投资周期不同的风险项目资金回报率确定问题，以及不同投资主体在风险项目评估中资金回报率的选择问题。

Investors pay more attention to systematic risks than non-systematic risks. Systematic risk arises not only because of correlation between a company's cash flow and the market return, but also because of common variation in expected returns. Particularly, in Iong-term projects such as high technology companies, the variation in expected returns is the primary determinant of systematic risk, which has been proved to be true theoretically and empirically. This has important implications for venture capital budgeting, such as the re-recognition of the reduction of risks via diversification of investment and the re-determination of the discount rates in different projects. This paper presents some new applications of this theory.