后危机时期的全球公共债务危机和中国面临的挑战

Post-Crisis Global Public Debt Crisis and China's Challenges

为克服危机而推行的扩张性财政政策导致了公共债务危机的恶化。美联储推出的"量化宽松II"不但难以消除美国过度负债的一系列后果,且对全球经济、金融稳定的副作用巨大。在新的一年,中国将面临来自实体经济和金融两方面的冲击:在出口增速下降、大宗商品价格上涨、贸易顺差减少的同时,热钱的冲击将导致资产价格和物价上涨压力的增加。中国现有外汇储备的实际价值也将遭受美国国债价格下降和美元贬值的双重打击。

The growth model that depends on debt expansion to push consumption demand is the ultimate cause of the eruption of the US sub-prime crisis.Worse,the expansionary fiscal policies the US has adopted to combat the crisis have led to deterioration of the public debt crisis.The Fed's QE2 will not only fail to eliminate the many consequences of the US over-indebtedness,but bring new side-effects to the global economic and financial stability.In 2011,China will face challenges from both the real economy and the financial front.While it is set to see slowing export growth,rising commodities prices and shrinking trade surplus,China will feel growing pressure from rising asset prices and consumer inflation as a result of 'hot money' inflows.The real value of China's foreign exchange reserve holdings will also be reduced as a result of declining US Treasury rates and dollar depreciation.