美国房地产市场复苏和经济增长前景

U.S.Housing Market Recovery and Prospects of its Economic Growth

自2006年以来,虽然调整已持续四年多,但无论从供给面、需求面还是房地产价格等指标来看,美国房地产市场仍然没有走出低谷。和以往相比,本轮房地产市场复苏明显滞后于经济复苏,从而很大程度上制约了美国经济反弹的强度和力度。房地产市场疲弱成为美国经济复苏的最大障碍。展望2011年,美国房地产市场将在底部震荡中维持微弱复苏,难以构成经济复苏的明显动力。进入2012年,美国房地产市场将会全面企稳,从而推动GDP增幅上升。

U.S.housing market has undergone continued correction for more than four years since 2006.However,seen either from the supply side and demand side or home price indicators,there are no signs that U.S.housing market has bottomed out.Compared with past housing market recovery,the housing market recovery has lagged far behind the current round of economic recovery,which has to a large extent affected the overall economic recovery.The housing market is yet to see fundamental improvement.Household wealth measured in housing prices remains at low levels,residential investment continued to decline,and the wealth effect and investment effect continued to be suppressed,making the housing market the biggest drag on U.S.economic recovery.Looking forward,the U.S.housing market will remain weak in 2011,and therefore it is difficult for the sector to become a significant driving force for U.S.economic recovery.But it could stabilize in 2012 to contribute to the U.S.GDP expansion.