农民工还能返回农业吗?——来自全国农产品成本收益调查数据的分析

Can Migrant Workers Go Back to Agriculture?——An Analysis Based on National Farm Product Cost-benefit Survey

本文利用全国农产品成本收益调查数据进行分析发现,20世纪90年代以来,主要粮食作物的劳动总投入和单位面积劳动投入都迅速下降,农业机械投入大幅度增加,资本—劳动投入比迅速提高,而2004年以来农业劳动力成本显著提高。本文选取粳稻作为粮食作物的代表,估计了粳稻的生产函数,并计算了粳稻的劳动产出弹性和边际劳动生产率。结果显示:与1980～2004年相比,2005～2009年,粳稻的劳动产出弹性和边际劳动生产率有大幅度提高。这些发现表明,农业越来越倾向于使用节约劳动的生产方式。对于已经迁移到城镇的农民工而言,当他们在城镇的就业受到冲击时,他们很难再返回到农业中来。

This paper uses China's national farm product cost-benefit survey data to address whether migrant workers can go back to agriculture or not.The paper finds that rapid rise of labor cost has happened in the agricultural sector since 2004.Total labor input and labor input per unit of three major grain crops have been falling and capital-labor ratio has risen rapidly since the mid-1990s.Output elasticity of labor and marginal labor productivity of japonica rice has risen by a large extent between the period 1980–2004 and 2005–2009.These findings tell us that,agricultural production tends to be more and more labor–saving.When migrant workers in cities suffer from employment shock,it is hard for them to go back to agriculture.