2011年宏观经济形势和政策前瞻

2011 macroeconomic outlook and policy prospective

2011年,世界经济复苏进程依然艰难,且新兴市场和发达国家增长不平衡的局面将继续存在。国内经济增速将有所放缓,但仍将保持在较高水平,GDP增速将呈前低后高走势。通货膨胀压力仍然较大,预计全年CPI涨幅在4 5%左右,其中受翘尾因素影响,CPI月度涨幅高点可能出现在一季度。宏观政策方面,预计货币政策将继续稳中偏紧,信贷规模控制仍将是主要手段。

In 2011, the global economic recovery would still be in difficulty, and the unbalanced growth between emerging markets and developed countries would remain. The growth of the Chinese economy is likely to slow down, but will still be at a high level, and GDP growth could gradually go up this year. Inflation pressure would be high, and it is expected that the annual CPI would be around 4.5%. Impacted by the tail-raising factor, the month-high of CPI might show up in Q1. As to macroeconomic policy, it is expected that monetary policy would remain stable and slightly tight, and credit scale control would still be the major tool.