2011年中国货币市场展望

Prospects for China's money market developments in 2011

2010年,货币政策向常态回归,市场流动性总体较为宽松,但流动性和利率的波动幅度加大。展望2011年的中国货币市场,由于商业银行超额存款准备金率已降至低位,银行开始调整资产结构,预计法定存款准备金率的上调空间将低于2%;商业银行可用资金呈中性偏紧态势,预计隔夜回购利率均值在2.1%～2.3%;央票利率基于其价格引导作用在短期内不会超过定存利率,而扩大公开市场规模则有利于应对流动性变化。

In 2010, monetary policy returned to normal and the market generally presented sufficient liquidity, but the fluctuations Of liquidity and interest rates widened. It is believed that in 2011, because commercial banks＇ excess reserve ratio has dipped to a low level and banks have started adjusting their assets structures, the possible increment of required reserve ratio would be limited within 2%, and commercial banks＇ available funds would be slightly tightened. It is expected that the overnight repo rate would average between 2.1%-2.3%. The central bank paper rate, a reference rate for the market, would not exceed the time deposit rate in the short term, while increasing volume in open market operation would benefit handling of liquidity changes.