采煤驱动下的矿区土地利用演化模拟和预测

Simulation and Prediction of Land Utilization Evolution in Coal Mining Area

准确、可靠地模拟和预测煤矿区土地利用演化,是矿区制定土地利用规划、土地复垦措施的重要依据。考虑到元胞自动机模型(CA)在土地利用变化模拟和预测方面的优越性能,将CA模型引入了矿区土地利用演化的模拟和预测。但矿区土地利用变化具有和一般区域不同的方式,煤炭资源的高强度开采是影响土地利用演变的重要要素之一。因此基于煤炭资源开发的基本原理,从影响矿区土地利用变化的驱动因子出发,建立了采煤驱动影响下的土地利用演化EMMLCA模型,以实现矿区土地利用演化的模拟和预测。为了验证模型的有效性,利用EMMLCA模型对潞安矿区土地利用演化进行了模拟和预测,结果表明,该方法是有效可行的,能够为矿区土地利用规划等提供准确、可靠的数据。

The accurate simulation and prediction of the land utilization evolution of mine, is an important basis for determining the land use planning, land reclamation measures. Taking into account of the superior performance of the cellular automaton model （CA） in the land-use modeling and prediction, the CA model is introduced to the simulation and prediction of the evolution of land utilization. But it is very different for land use changes in coal mine area from urban regions. The high tension exploitation of coal resources is one of the important elements that affect the evolution of land utilization. Based on the basic principles of coal resources development, EMMLCA （Evolution Model of Mining-induced Land Based on CA）model of land use evolution under coal mining is established to simulate and predict the changes of land use in mine area. To test the efficiency of the model, the changes of land use in Lu＇an coal mine area is simulated and predicted based on EMMLCA model. Result shows that the model is both feasible and effective, thus its predicted results can be taken as accurate and reliable data for the land use plan of coal mining area.