基于SAR模型和蒙特卡罗法的防洪调度风险分析

Risk analysis for flood dispatching based on SAR model and Monte Carlo method

应用一阶季节性自回归模型生成多场入库洪水过程,考虑泥沙淤积状况和泄流能力不确定性影响,在给定汛限水位和调洪规则下对模拟洪水进行调洪演算,统计得到水库防洪风险率。实例分析结果表明:水文因素的随机性、库容与水位关系的不确定性是万家寨水库防洪风险的主要影响因素,泄流能力不确定因素对水库泄洪影响不明显;同时得出了各汛限水位方案下水库的防洪风险率,为万家寨水库前汛期动态汛限水位选择提供了一定的参考依据。

Seasonal AR（1） models are used to generate a series of reservoir inflow floods.The risk rate of flood control of reservoir is obtained by flood regulation routing based on the given limited water level and regulating rules,considering influence of sediment deposition and uncertainty of discharging capacity.The results show that the randomness of hydrological factors and uncertainty of relationship between storage capacity and water level are major contributing factors to the overall risk of Wanjiazhai Reservoir,and the uncertainty of discharging capacity hardly affect the discharging of the reservoir.We obtain the different flood control risk rate of reservoirs under various limited water levels.It provides a reference for decision of dynamic limited water level in initial period of flood season of Wanjiazhai Reservoir.