晋陕蒙地区煤层气勘查潜力综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of coalbed methane exploration potential in the Jin-Shaan-Meng area

目前,晋陕蒙地区的煤层气产业已初步进入商业化生产阶段,其勘探开发资料比较丰富,开展勘查潜力综合评价已具备条件。为此,在大量收集该区煤层气勘探开发资料的基础上,综合分析了影响煤层气勘查潜力的各种因素,应用层次分析法确定了煤层气勘查潜力评价的12个指标,结合专家意见还对各级指标赋予了权重,最后建立起了煤层气资源勘查潜力综合评价指标体系。分析认为,评价对象具有明显灰色性特征,运用层次分析法和灰色聚类法建立了用于煤层气资源勘查潜力评价的多层次综合评价模型。利用该模型对晋陕蒙地区沁水、霍西、鄂尔多斯东缘、渭北4个含气区带的煤层气资源勘查潜力进行了评价。结果表明:最有利的勘查区块分布于4个含气区带的浅部含气区,深部含气区勘查潜力整体上较差。其评价结果对今后该区煤层气资源勘查具有指导作用。

According to the exploration and exploitation data collected from the Jin-Shaan-Meng area(Shanxi,Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia provinces),we comprehensively analyzed various factors influencing coalbed methane(CBM) exploration potential.Analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was used to define twelve indices for the assessment of CBM exploration potential.Then,a corresponding weight was assigned to each index,and based on the expert opinion,a comprehensive evaluation index system was thus established.Through an analysis of the gray character of evaluation objects,a multi-layered evaluation model was built for the assessment of CBM exploration potential by using AHP and grey clustering methods.As a case study,the model was applied to the assessment of CBM exploration potential in four CBM zones,including Qinshui,Huoxi,eastern margin of the Ordos Basin and Weibei in the study area.The results show that exploration potential of the shallow layers is large,while that of the deeper layers is small as a whole.The evaluation results can guide future CBM exploitation in the study area.