资本积累与经济增长——来自中国省际动态面板数据的发现

Capital Accumulation and Growth

本文使用中国29个省份1961～2008年间的面板数据,对投资与增长之间的关系进行了检验。发现投资对长期GDP增长存在显著的"增长效应",而其短期效应不太明显。相对东部省份和中部省份,西部省份投资的"增长效应"更为显著。在考虑了稳健性问题后,上述结论依然成立。这表明在经济发展的不同阶段或者在不同的前沿技术差距上,投资对经济增长的作用存在差异。研究还发现,新古典增长模型可能低估了投资在长期中的作用。

Using annual data for 29 provinces in the period of 1961-2008, we present evidence of a positive relationship between investment as a share of GDP and the long- run growth rate of GDP per worker. This result is especially robust for the sub- sample of western provinces, but not for the sub- sample of eastern and central provinces. After controlling for some econometric issues, the findings above also hold. This may give some hints that in different development step there may be different role for investment in catch- up the growth at the fron- tier. Another finding of the paper is the neoclassical growth accounting framework may render the underestimation the role of investment.