模拟最大熵法及其在水库泄洪风险计算中的应用

Simulate maximum entropy method and its application to reservoir flood risk calculation

基于随机模拟(Monte-Corlo)和最大熵方法的优点,提出了风险计算的模拟最大熵法,并建立了相应的数学模型。将该方法应用于水库工程的泄洪风险计算,并对其计算结果进行了验证、分析和比较。结果表明,在信息相同的条件下,此方法不但可以充分利用已知条件,得到待求的概率分布及风险值,而且在计算速度上也比随机模拟方法快20多倍,提高了计算速度,并为风险计算提供了一个新的思路。

Based on the advantages of stochastic simulation（Monte-Carlo）and the maximum entropy method,the Simulate Maximum Entropy Method（SMEM）is suggested to calculate the risk,and the corresponding mathematical model is established.The method is applied to calculate the flood risk of a typical reservoir and the calculation results are validated by observation data.The results show that this method can make full use of known information under the same conditions and attain the corresponding probability distribution and the risk value.This method is faster than the stochastic simulation method by 20 times,which not only greatly improve the speed,but also provides a new way of thinking for risk calculation.