短期国际资本流动新趋势、对我国的影响及其防范

New Trends in International Capital Flows and Their Impact on China and Prevention

当前,全球资本流动总量小幅但不均衡回升,未来有可能缓慢增长;发展中国家资本市场的发展正在逐渐改变国际资本流动的结构;国际金融市场参与者的角色发生很大的变化;国际资本向新兴经济体特别是亚洲新兴经济体大量流动。在短期国际资本的持续冲击下,新兴经济体已有形成资产泡沫的风险,并且在未来仍有继续扩大的趋势。对于中国而言,热钱在中国的投机空间有限,短期内大规模持续流入的条件还不具备,温和流入并时有反复可能将成长期趋势。要摆脱国际热钱大规模流动带来的包括人民币升值压力在内的一系列困扰,必须采取疏堵结合的方式:一方面,采取有效的防御性措施,监控各类热钱,加强流入管制;另一方面,应重视疏导的作用,抑制泡沫膨胀,吸引中长期国际资本,防范和限制短期资本泛滥。

Currently, the total global capital flows with a slight but uneven recovery, in the future there could a slow growth ; the development of capital markets in developing countries is gradually changing the structure of international capital flows; the role of international financial market participants change a lot ; international capital flows to emerging economies, especially to Asia. Sustained in the short term impact of international capital, emer- ging economies are in the risk of asset bubbles and the risk continues to expand in the future, there is a trend. For China, the speculative hot money in China is limited, large - scale continuous inflow of short - term conditions are not met, while a repeated moderate flow will become long - term trend . To get rid of troubles from the large - scale flow of international hot money , including pressure of RMB appreciation, a series of combining measures must be taken： one hand, effective defensive measures shoulb be taken to monitor all kinds of hot money to strengthen the flow of control ; the other hand, attention should be paid to inhibit foam expansion by attracting long - term interna- tional capital and preventing and limiting the proliferation of short -term capital.