中国二氧化碳排放效率低么？--基于福利视角的国际比较

The Efficiency of CO_2 Emissions in China is Low?——A Perspective of Wellbeing for International Comparison

本文构建碳排放福利绩效指数,对中国二氧化碳排放效率进行评价,并采用对数平均迪氏分解法对中国、中美、中英的碳福利绩效变化进行因素分解分析,结果表明基于福利视角的中国二氧化碳排放效率高于英国和美国,但发展轨迹表现趋于恶化。中美、中英之间的碳福利绩效之间的差值远小于碳生产率的国别差值,但这种差距正在缩小。基于时间序列或国别之间中国碳福利绩效变化,驱动因素均为碳生产率效应,经济福利绩效因素则表现为抑制作用。中国的未来低碳经济发展路径应当参考英国的模式。最后建议将提高碳福利绩效作为制定政策的目标。

This study focuses on the better understanding of the nature of low carbon economy from the per- spective of wellbeing performance, that is, less carbon dioxide emissions but better social wellbeing. The CO2 well- being performance （CWP） is established in this article, which is based on the ecological and economic perform- ance formula from Herman E. Daly. The carbon wellbeing performance （CWP） is decomposed into carbon produc- tivity （CP） and economic performance （EP） and analyzed using the method of LMDI （Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index）. The empirical results show that efficiency of China＇ s carbon dioxide emissions is higher than the United States and the United Kingdom during 1980 to 2007, however its CWP trend is weakening. It implies that wellbeing of China does not keep pace with the rising level of carbon emissions, and CWP of UK and US have been improving year by year. The cap of CWP between Sino - US or Sino - UK is reduced but still smaller than the cap of CP. The effect of CP factor is always as driving force for improving the CWP, and EP is shown as being a weakening factor for CWP. Moreover, the choice of low carbon development in China should refer to UK mode. The nature of low carbon economy is to enhance the wellbeing but control of CO2. Improving CWP will help to promote the develop- ment of high - efficiency low - carbon economy, so it is proposed to put the CWP as core of policy making.