区域气候变化脆弱性综合评估研究进展

Reviews on Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

区域脆弱性评估为脆弱性地区农户摆脱贫困、区域持续发展和政府制定适应策略提供科学依据。由于区域内部人地系统的复杂性,区域的脆弱性定量评估较为困难。中国脆弱性研究起步较晚,关注较早的是脆弱性区域的分布,但对区域内脆弱人群的脆弱性研究较少,认识上的不足影响了国家和地方政府制定科学的适应政策和措施。本文介绍了对脆弱性的认识,梳理了区域气候变化脆弱性评估方法,阐释了定性内涵、指标评估、以可持续生计框架为基础的脆弱性评估、基于地理信息系统的脆弱性评估等方法。针对中国的生态脆弱区,建议利用可持续生计框架构建指标体系,定量评估其脆弱性。

Assessments of regional vulnerability provide a scientific basis for poverty reduction,sustainable development and formulation of adaptive strategies in vulnerable regions.Quantitative methods for regional vulnerability assessment are very difficult due to the complexity of man-land system.Vulnerability studies started late in China,and the earlier studies concerned more on the distribution of vulnerable areas but less on vulnerable people,which prevents the central and local governments from formulating scientific adaptation policies and measures.This paper reviews the understandings of vulnerability and the methods for regional climate change vulnerability assessment.Cases about qualitative analysis,index evaluation and vulnerability evaluation based on sustainable livelihood framework and GIS methods are introduced.Suggestions on vulnerability assessment based on sustainable livelihood framework are also presented for the vulnerable regions of China.