泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数——基于潜在产出、自然利率与均衡汇率的研究

Taylor Rule and Reaction Function of China's Monetary Policy:A Study Based on Potential Output,Natural Interest Rate and Equilibrium Exchange Rate

潜在产出、自然利率和均衡汇率是货币政策决策和效果评价的重要参考基准。通过状态空间模型对我国潜在产出、自然利率和均衡汇率水平进行联合估计,并在此基础上通过建立一个包含汇率因素的"混合型"泰勒规则对我国货币政策反应函数进行估计,结果显示,我国货币政策行为对通货膨胀、产出缺口和汇率波动作出了较为及时和稳定的反应,但货币政策的前瞻性有待提高。

Potential output,natural rate of interest and equilibrium rate of exchange are important references for the decision and evaluation of monetary policies.This paper employs the state-space model to estimate jointly the potential output,natural rate of interest and equilibrium rate of exchange in China.Based on this,it builds a'mixed'Taylor rule with the component of exchange rate to estimate China's reaction function of monetary policy.The results show that the monetary policies in China react timely and steadily to the recent changes of inflation,output and exchange rate,but the forward-looking property of the policies remain to be further strengthened.