中国外贸产业结构变迁与国际竞争力演化的经验分析

An Empirical Study of the Structural Changes and Evolution of International Competitiveness of China's Foreign Trade Industries

通过采用1978-2009年联合国Comtrade数据库中按照三、四位数分类的中国进出口贸易数据和国家统计局《中国高技术产业统计分类》中的数据,以国际竞争力指数来代指外贸产业的竞争力状态,并用其时间序列在不同产业中的变化来刻画改革开放30多年来中国贸易产业结构的发展轨迹和国际竞争力走向。研究结果表明,中国外贸产业结构渐趋优化,国际竞争力在逐渐提升。从总体上看,劳动密集型产业竞争力优势仍将保持,资本密集型产业竞争力有所提升,但在高新技术领域中具有较强竞争力的行业很少。中国在从贸易大国向贸易强国转变过程中仍需进一步提升外贸产业的国际竞争力。

This paper adopts China's import and export data at 3-digit and 4-digit levels in the UN Comtrade database from 1978 to 2009 and the date from the'Statistical Classification of China's High-Tech Industries'of China's National Bureau of Statistics,refers to the statue of competitiveness of China's foreign trade industries with the index of international competitiveness,and describes the development path of China's foreign trade industries for more than 30 years since the reform and opening up and the trend of international competitiveness by making use of the time series changes in various industries.The results indicate that the structure of China's foreign trade industries tends to optimize and China's international competitiveness has been increasing step by step.On the whole,the competitive advantages in the labor-intensive industries will be maintained,the competitiveness in the capital-intensive industries has been enhanced,but in the high-tech industries China has few industries with strong competitiveness.China still needs to enhance the competitiveness of her foreign trade industries when transiting from a large country of foreign trade into a strong one.