摘要
基于最小割集思想,在最小割集事件的出现次数近似服从泊松分布的基础上导出电网可靠性指标的随机函数解析表达式,并进一步结合非参数核密度估计技术,实现电网可靠性指标概率密度分布的解析计算。所提方法不但是对现有研究的有益补充,而且消除了序贯蒙特卡罗仿真是获取电网可靠性指标概率密度分布的唯一现实选择这一传统认知误区。通过对RBTS和IEEE-RTS 79可靠性测试系统的评估分析,验证所提方法的有效性和正确性。
The sequential Monte Carlo simulation is traditionally regarded as the only choice to investigate the probability distribution characteristic of reliability indices by simulating the actual operational history and random behavior of the system. An analytical approach based on minimal cut set theory was presented, and the analytical formulas of the random functions for bulk power systems reliability indices were deduced under the assumption that the number of occurrence for a minimal cut set is approximately Poisson distributed. Moreover, the analytical calculation of the probability density distribution for the reliability indices was realized utilizing the nonparametric kernel density estimation technique. The presented method can not only be a useful supplement for similar researches but also clear the misunderstanding in the historical literature. Finally, the RBTS and IEEE-RTS 79 power systems were evaluated and the results verify its validity.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期31-38,共8页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50607021
50977094)
输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目(2007DA-10512709103)~~
关键词
电网
可靠性
概率密度分布
解析计算
最小割集
power grid
reliability
probability density distribution
analytical approach
minimal cut set
