城镇化、市民化与城乡收入差距关系的实证研究——基于山东省时间序列数据及面板数据的实证分析

Relationship among Urbanization,Citizenization and Urban-rural Income Inequality:An Empirical Analysis Based on Time Series Data and Panel Data of Shandong Provience

在区分城镇化与市民化的基础上,通过构建时间序列和面板数据模型,运用格兰杰因果检验、时序序列数据多元回归、面板数据多元回归等多种方法,对城镇化、市民化与城乡收入差距之间的内在关系进行了多重检验。结果显示,城镇化在长期水平上通过影响市民化来缩小城乡收入差距,而在短期水平上则与城乡收入差距呈正向关系,即目前的城镇化发展模式不仅没有缩小城乡收入,相反是在扩大城乡差距,这一结果打破了现有城镇化与城乡收入差距关系的固有认识。而市民化则与城乡收入差距呈长期稳定的负向关系,是缩小城乡收入差距,促进城乡统筹发展的重要途径。因此,应积极转变城镇化的发展模式,将市民化作为统筹城乡发展的根本途径。

Based on the distinguishment between the connotations of urbanization and citizenization, the article analyzed the relationship among urbanization, citizenization and urban-rural income inequality. Both the time series data and the panel data of Shandong Provience were used to set up models for the analysis. The results of the Granger causality test show that urbanization and urban-rural income inequality interacts as both Granger cause and effect, and the relationship between citizenization and urban-rural income inequality is similar. The regression analysis results based on the time series data show that urbanization and citizenization can reduce the gap between urban and rural incomes, but industrialization and the government finance investment can contribute to the increase the gap. More importantly, the last two contributing factors of the urban and rural income inequality are stronger than the first both factors. However, the analysis based on the panel data shows that there is a positive relationship between urbanization and urban-rural income inequality in the short term. In other words, urbanization can increase the gap between urban and rural incomes in short period. Nevertheless, citizenization can contribute to reduce the gap between urban and rural incomes. The analysis results give a new interpretation of urbanization and urban-rural income inequality. Therefore, an adventurous hypothesis is set forth that urbanization prompts citizenization, which will lead to reducing urban-rural income inequality in the long run. Two interpretations are provided that the hypothesis is logical. First, it＇ s possible that the urbanization may widen the gap between urban and rural income in statistical perspective, because the strict conditions of the household system make the rural wealthy much easier to become urbanized and counted as urban population than the rural poor. Second, the current urbanization mode in China contributes to widen the urban-rural income inequality, that is, the peasants move to cities seeking for jobs, bust they do not have all the rights that a usual city citizen have due to the household registering system and related institutions. As a result, the peasants in the rural could not achieve economies of scale on the limited arable land. In spite of the peasants moved to the cities could obtain higher income in cities than in the rural, more surplus value that they produced are occupied and shared by the urban people and the foreign investors. Because there is negative relationship between citizenization and urbanrural income inequality, to promote the citizenization of the rural people who live and work in cities will be an appropriate way for reducing the gap between urban-rural incomes and urban and rural overall planning development. At the same time, changing the irrational urbanization development mode needs to be taken into consideration.