中国入境旅游者购物消费的省际差异及影响因素——基于面板数据模型的分析

Provincial Differences of Inbound Tourists' Shopping Expenditure in China and the Influencing Factors——Based on A Panel Data Model

采用面板数据模型，对1999～2008年的中国各省区（港澳台除外）经济发展水平、旅游业发展水平、资源丰度、群体参照、口岸等因素对入境游客购物消费的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明，入境游客购物消费水平主要受以旅游住宿业的发达程度为代表的区域内经济及旅游发展水平和上年接待人境游客人数为代表的群体参照的影响，而口岸资源丰度对入境旅游者购物消费水平的影响呈现出两极化态势，资源丰度与入境游客购物消费之间存在空间错位。

Shopping is a very important factor determining the multiplier effects of the tourism sector. A panel data model is selected to measure the impact of influencing factors on inbound tourists＇ shopping expenditure in each province of China based on data from 1999 to 2008 （Hongkong, Maeau, Taiwan excluding）. The influencing factors include economic development level, tourism accommodation development level, resource endowment, word of mouth and the location as border province. The result shows that the primary determinant factors are tourism accommodation development level and word of mouth. The tourism accommodation development level is more important than that of word of mouth. Meanwhile, other two factors＇ inter-provincial differentiations are discussed. Firstly, the location as border provinces has significant influence. Inbound tourists＇ shopping expenditure is highly dependent on the characteristics of their adjacent countries, since tourists from their adjacent countries account for a larger portion of their inbound tourists. Secondly, tourism resources do not always a determinant factor to enhance shopping expenditures. Policies are also suggested. The tourism shopping industry can not be developed separately from the regional economic and tourism development context. Due to the significance of the word of mouth, established reputation and appealing image should be maintained and managed to enhance the tourists shopping expenditures. The spatial dislocation of tourism resource indicates that a tourism destination with diversified attractions is more appealing to tourists than the one with homogeneous attractions. For border provinces, to make strategies corresponding to the characteristics of their adjacent countries is an efficient measure.