山东省旅游外汇收入与经济增长动态关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship Between Shandong Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings and Economic Growth

入境旅游是山东省服务业中的重要组成部分,为山东省服务业发展创造了巨大的外汇收入,在山东服务贸易中一直处于顺差地位。通过利用计量经济模型分析方法(单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验)研究山东省旅游业外汇收入与经济增长之间的动态关系。实证分析结果表明山东省经济的增长能够促进入境旅游业的发展,而山东省旅游外汇收入的增长却不一定能够引起山东省经济的增长。

Inbound tourism is an important part of Shandong service industry,it creates huge foreign exchange earnings for the development of Shandong service industry,and it also always takes a surplus position.In this paper,the author uses econometric model analysis（Unit root test,Cointegration test,Granger causality test） to research the dynamic relationship between the foreign exchange earnings of Shandong tourism industry and economic growth.In the end,the empirical results show that the economic growth in Shandong Province Tourism promotes the development of inbound tourism,however,the improvement of foreign exchange earning in Shandong tourism industry can not necessarily lead to the economic growth.