近10年江苏省土地利用重心与经济重心迁移轨迹对比分析

SHIFT ROUTE AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LAND USE GRAVITY AND ECONOMY GRAVITY CENTER IN RECENT TEN YEARS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

土地资源作为区域发展的载体,其利用状况与社会经济发展水平联系紧密。采用近10a来江苏省土地利用及经济社会数据,通过区域重心的计算方法得到了土地利用与经济重心,在此基础上揭示江苏省土地利用状况及经济社会发展的空间差异,分析土地要素和经济要素动态迁移的影响因素。研究结果显示:(1)1997～2006年,江苏省耕地重心向西北方向迁移,交通用地与居民点工矿地重心在1997～2001年向西移动,在2001～2006年向东南方向迁移;近10a的GDP重心一直向东南方向移动,其中第一产业重心表现为向西北方向移动,第二产业重心沿东南方向移动,第三产业重心表现为轻微的东南方向偏移,而固定资产投资重心迁移则表现为无规律性、跳跃式移动;(2)土地重心迁移轨迹符合江苏省土地利用的实际状况,经济重心迁移轨迹显示江苏省南北不均衡性发展仍在进一步拉大;(3)江苏省GDP重心、第二产业、第三产业重心未来将继续向苏南地区移动,但总的迁移速度将适度减缓,重心的经向移动加强,同时土地利用重心经向迁移也将得到一定程度的加强。

As the vector of regional development,utilization status of land resources has close relationship with the level of social economic development.Data of land use,GDP,fixed assets investment,primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry in recent 10 years in Jiangsu Province were used to figure out the land use gravity and economy gravity center in every year and quantitatively express the shift route of land use and economy gravity center.On the basis of the result,the difference of utilization status of land use and spatial difference of social economic development in regions of Jiangsu Province was analyzed.Influencing factors of dynamic migration about land and economic factors were also analyzed and the relation between land use and economy gravity center was revealed.Results showed that：gravity center of farmland moved to northwest during 1997～2006 while the one of traffic and residential land moved to west during 1997～2001 and southeast during 2001～2006.Totally,gravity center of GDP moved to southeast in the past 10 years while the primary industry moved to northwest,secondary industry and tertiary industry moved to southeast,but the change of fixed assets investment gravity center showed irregularity.The shift route of land use gravity center corresponded with the present situation of land use of Jiangsu Province.And the shift route of economy gravity center showed that the region discrepancy in Jiangsu Province was extended.The gravity center of GDP,secondary industry and tertiary industry will move to the south Jiangsu in the coming years,but the speed will be decelerated,and the shift will strengthen in longitude and the shift trend of land use gravity center will also be reinforced.