湖南生猪生产波动影响因素的实证分析及政策建议

An Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of Fluctuation and Policy Suggestions in Hog Production in Hunan

本文以湖南省1978-2009年生猪年出栏量为研究对象,采用H-P滤波法测定湖南生猪生产波动分为五个古典型周期。通过计量分析得出湖南生猪生产系统内部传导机制对生猪产量波动的影响占71.56%。内部传导的影响因素分别为牧业总产值、农民人均纯收入、猪肉人均产量和乡村人口数。为减缓波动促进湖南生猪产业的健康发展,应当建立以市场机制为基础的政策体系。

This paper, adopting the H-P Wave Method, finds that there are five fluctuation cycles in the hog production while taking the slaughtering amount of hogs in Hunan province during 1978 to 2007 as the object of study. After a quantitative analysis, it concludes that the internal transmission mechanism of the hog production systems on pig production fluctuations accounted for 71.56%. The internal factors of conduction are output value of animal husbandry, rural per capita net income, per capita output of pork and rural population. To lessen the fluctuation, and promote the healthy development of hog production industry in Hunan, it is necessary to construct a policy system based on the market mechanism.