基于水资源承载力的民勤绿洲土地利用结构优化研究

Optimization of Land Use Structure based on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Minqin Oasis,Gansu,China

采用灰色线性规划方法,基于水资源承载力对民勤绿洲土地利用结构优化进行了研究。研究结果表明:①在水资源刚性约束的条件下,土地利用结构优化的方向是减少高耗水的水浇地,增加大棚用地、牧草地、灌木林地和工业用地。②提出了土地利用结构优化最优方案,使万元GDP耗水下降了0.1618 m3,单位耗水产出增加了8.66元;③最优方案可以实现水资源消耗最小化,水资源消耗量比规划期可供水资源总量少0.48亿m3,可以缓减用水压力,有利于地下水位的逐步恢复;④土地利用结构调整优化必须与节水型社会建设同步推进,才能在确保综合效益的前提下达到水资源利用最小化,实现区域可持续发展。

Based on water resources carrying capacity,optimization of land use structure in Minqin oasis,Gansu,China was studied with Gray Linear Planning method.The results are as follows：（1） The optimization direction of land use structure is to decrease the area of irrigated land,and to increase the area of grassland,shrub land and industrial land because of absolute constraint of water resources.（2） A best program of land use structure optimization is given,and under its operation the water consumption per RMB$10 000 GDP can be decreased by 0.1618 m^3,also the output per unit water consumption can be increased by RMB$8.66.（3） The best optimization program can achieve the minimum water consumption,and the total water consumption can be controlled to be 0.48×108 m^3 less than the available volume during the plan period.Optimization program can alleviate water shortage and help gradual restoration of groundwater level.（4） Optimization of land use structure should be simultaneously completed with construction of water-saving society in order to ensure sustainability of water use and regional development.