摘要
目的:基于我国政府卫生支出的现状,预测其未来增长趋势。方法:运用指数平滑方法对1978—2008年的我国政府卫生支出数据进行分析及预测,又以趋势外推法的结果与其进行比较。结果:我国政府卫生支出在2015年可达到6570亿元,在2020年可达到9080亿元。
Objective： To forecast the growth of government health expenditure in China based on its current situation. Methods： Analyzing the data of the government health expenditure from 1978 to 2008 in China and forecasting its growth trends with the method of exponential smoothing. The results were compared with that of trend extrapolation method. Results： The government health expenditure will reach to 657 billion yuan in 2015; reach to 908 billion yuan in 2020.
出处
《中国卫生经济》
北大核心
2011年第1期22-23,共2页
Chinese Health Economics
基金
卫生部政策法规司课题:政府卫生投入增长机制研究
关键词
政府卫生支出
预测
指数平滑
趋势外推
government health expenditure
forecast
exponential smoothing
trend extrapolation
