开放经济条件下我国游资规模的测算研究

The Calculation of Chinese Hot Money under Opening-up Economy

自2005年汇率改革以来，在人民币预期升值驱动下，国际游资大规模流入中国，对我国货币政策的独立性和实施效果产生了较大的冲击和影响。结合AUtO—Regressive模型、PLS回归和GM（1，1）模型对2005-2009年的我国国际游资规模进行测算，结果表明，我国的国际游资主要是通过贸易顺差流入我国的，FDI中隐藏的国际游资相对要少很多。测算至2009年底，我国的国际游资规模已经达到了12623．31亿美元。

Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, driven by the expected appreciation of the RMB, large scale international hot money flows into China. So the independence of monetary pol- icy and the implementation effect in our country have been greatly impacted. Using the auto regressive model, PLS regression and GM （1,1） model, the scale of the hot money is measured based on the data from 2005 to 2009. The results show that hot money flow in China mainly through the trade surplus, and hidden in FDI is relatively small. Moreover, the hot money in China has reached 1262. 331billion dollars till 2009.