非均衡共变与内控冲击:福彩市场周期波动互谱分析

Non-Equilibrium Co-movement and Introcontrol Shocks:Cross Spectrum Analysis of Cyclical Fluctuation of Welfare Lottery Issuance in China

近年来,中国福彩市场出现不稳定波动现象。因相关理论研究缺乏,故发行机构无法准确把握运行规律而出现决策失灵。运用经过约束条件检验的互谱密度函数频域分析法测度1987—2009年间的GDP、城镇居民可支配收入、农村居民人均纯收入、体育彩票发行额及CPI这5个经济变量波动对福利彩票发行额周期波动的影响,结果发现:短期内福利彩票发行额只与GDP存在较强周期共变关系,相干谱系数是0.71;5个经济变量的互谱增益贡献比都在1%以下;体育彩票发行额以增量方式发挥短期非均衡冲击作用,比福彩发行额滞后3个月。

By using Cross Spectrum Method,this paper studies the cyclical correlation between grossdomestic product（GDP）,the per-capita disposable income of urban residents,the per-capita disposableincome of rural residents,sports lottery issuance,consumer price index（CPI）and welfare lottery issuancewith yearly data of time series from 1987 to 2009.It is found that there is a cyclical co-movement betweenwelfare lottery circulation and GDP in the short term;the gain contribution of five variables to welfarelottery issuance is less than 1%;sports lottery issuance plays a non-equilibrium role at a mean ofincremental quantity in the short term,the length of lag is three months.