橘小实蝇在江西省的潜在分布区预测

Potential Geographical Distribution of Oriental Fruit Fly,Bactrocera dorsalis in Jiangxi Province

利用橘小实蝇的分布点数据和环境因子数据,通过GARP生态位模型预测了橘小实蝇在江西省的潜在分布区域。结果表明,橘小实蝇在江西省的适生面积占全省面积的2/3以上。在24-26°N赣南盆地的大部分区域,年平均气温在19～20℃,是橘小实蝇的高适生区;在26-27°N的赣州北部的部分地区以及吉安西南部、抚州、鹰潭、上饶东南部的少部分地区,年平均气温在18～19℃,是橘小实蝇的中适生区;在26-30°N的滨湖、赣江中下游、抚河、袁水区域和赣西南山区,年平均气温在17～18℃,是橘小实蝇的低适生区;赣东北、赣西北和长江沿岸地区,年平均气温为16～17℃,是橘小实蝇的非适生区。

Based on the ecological niche model technique and genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction（GARP）,the potential distribution of the fly in Jiangxi province was predicted with associations between known occurrence records and a set of environment variables.The results indicated that the distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis were more than two thirds of the whole area in Jianxi province.As regards to the infection environments,the basin in Southern Jiangxi ranged from 24°N to 26°N and the annual average temperature 19~20℃ was the most favorable place for Bactrocera dorsalis.Secondarily,the opportune region including parts of north Ganzhou,southwest Ji＇an,southeast Fuzhou,southeast Yingtan,southeast Shangrao（Latitude：26°N~ 27°N,average 18~19℃ per year）.Nevertheless,the geographic range from 26°N to 30°N,where the annual average temperature was 17~18℃ was less suitable for Bactrocera dorsalis.The northeast and northwest Jiangxi,the regions along the Yangtse river,where the annual average temperature was 16~17℃,were considered to be unsuitable for infestation.